Bagavad Gita

“Bound by your own Karma, born out of your nature, deeds which out of delusion you wish not to do, you shall do helplessly against your will” O Kaunteya --Bhagavad Gita - Chap: 18 ; Verse: 60

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Part II : Asset Building through Equity

Part  II :   Asset  Building  Through  Equity

CHAPTER 7: Who are the fellow players?



The prudent act after weighing the strength a deed demands,
One's own strength and the strengths of allies and opposition.
                                                            Thirukkural    Verse 471
                          



Introduction: 

When you play a game it is important to know the fellow players and their strategies. In stock market the price of a stock will never move on its own. Stock prices are manipulated often by those having vested interests. This manipulation results in wild gyrations in the market. It is essential to know about people who are interested in pushing the stock price up and down.
The stock market is comprised of people. People who run the stock exchanges, people who serve as market makers, people who run stock brokerages and, of course, people who buy and sell stocks.  Let us discuss about them one by one.

1. Brokers

A broker is a person who mediates between a buyer and a seller. Stockbrokers also sometimes or exclusively trade on their own behalf, speculating that a share or other financial instrument will increase or decline in price. In such cases the term broker makes little sense and the individuals or firms trading in principal capacity sometimes call themselves dealers, stock traders or simply traders.

2. Retail Investors

A retail investor is an individual investor possessing shares of a given security. A Registered Shareholder is a retail investor who holds shares that are acquired either directly through the issuer or its transfer agent. Many registered shareholders have physical copies of their stock certificates.

3. Jobbers

These are the brokers who buy shares on their own account and not for the customers. So they have vested interest in maintaining or pushing up or down the stock prices.

4. Promoters

Promoters of a company are much interested in their share price in the market. They try to maintain higher share price whenever they come out for public issues.

5. Insiders

Usually the senior officers in a company, who have access to vital information about the company, have vested interest in their company’s stock price. The inside information affords them to cash in before others come to know of it.( Such trading is not ethical and is considered illegal).

6. Syndicated Investor Groups

Big investors and syndicated groups of medium sized investors are immensely interested in stock prices. Their operation can influence the market considerably.

7. Investment Advisors

Large-scale investment advisers who operate with a wide circle of clientele can influence the stock price considerably.

8. Indian Financial Institutions

An institutional investor is an investor, such as a bank, insurance company, retirement fund, hedge fund, or mutual fund that is financially sophisticated and makes large investments, often held in very large portfolios of investments. Because of their sophistication, institutional investors may often participate in private placements of securities, in which certain aspects of the securities laws may be inapplicable. Today’s influential market participants are mainly institutional investors. These include asset management and equity market-making firms. Most institutional players manage, control and/or trade large amounts of investment capital on a daily basis. Their impact on share prices can be significant.

9. Government

The Government at times have vested interest in the stock market.

10. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII’s)

Fairly a recent entrant in our Indian Stock Market. A large percentage of foreign institutional investors are asset managers involved in managing “long-only” portfolios of equity securities held in pension funds, retirement plans, mutual funds, charitable foundations, endowments, etc. Other asset managers, like hedge fund managers, deploy alternative investment strategies utilizing the equity and other markets to accomplish their goals. Hedge funds control vast amounts of investment capital, and assets under their management have a serious impact on the direction of the equity markets.
Most of their operations are based on international developments. Small investors should take enough care in investing in stocks which have great exposure to these funds.

11. Day Traders

Fairly a new breed in Indian Stock Market, trying to make quick money every day by indulging in day trading in stocks. A day trader is a trader who buys and sells financial instruments (e.g. stocks, options, futures, derivatives, currencies) within the same trading day such that all positions will usually be closed before the market close for that trading day. This trading style is called day trading. Majority of this group end up in losing money.

Besides the actions of the above group of people, natural calamities such as earthquake, fire, flood, famine, war etc., will also have sudden impact in the price movement.

Successful stock market trading requires experience, discipline and technical knowledge. Traders must learn how stock prices behave and how they are influenced by key market participants. Knowledge and insight into the behavior of the key market players will greatly enhance the trader's ability to anticipate and recognize their operations, forecast the future direction of prices and position themselves accordingly. While no trader is successful 100% of the time, the successful trader should strive to be right most of the time. Being right often means making money.

Stock Market Jargon:


Primary Market

Companies, governments and other groups obtain financing through debt or equity based securities. All new IPOs(Initial Public Offers) issued will be considered a primary market trade when the shares are first purchased by investors directly from the underwriting investment bank.
 A Primary market usually refers to new securities that are issued on an exchange. Primary markets are facilitated by underwriting groups, which consist of investment banks that will set a beginning price range for a given security and then oversee its sale directly to investors.  Also known as "new issue market" (NIM). Primary markets can see increased volatility over secondary markets because it is difficult to accurately gauge investor demand for a new security until several days of trading have occurred.

Secondary Market

A market where investors purchase securities or assets from other investors, rather than from issuing companies. The secondary market is represented by the stock exchanges in any capital market. The stock exchanges provide an organised market place for the investors to trade in the securities. The national exchanges NSE and Bombay Stock Exchange BSE are secondary markets.
Secondary markets exist for other securities as well. In any secondary market trade, the cash proceeds go to an investor rather than to the underlying company/entity directly. In the primary market prices are often set beforehand, whereas in the secondary market only basic forces like supply and demand determine the price of the security.

Arbitrageurs

Traders who take advantage of any price difference that exists for a particular share at a particular time between two stock exchanges (Between BSE and NSE) .They buy at the stock exchange where the price is low and sell at the stock exchange where the price is high.


Dr.Felisleo
5.12.2010


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Thursday, December 2, 2010

CHART WATCH

CHART WATCH

SEE THE PICTURE AND TELL THE STORY

EXERCISE- 6

Charts are Graphical representation of price movement of anything over a period of time. The trend depicted by these charts is governed by the forces of demand and supply.  ‘History Repeats’ is a dictum that is operative in the markets also. Markets include all kinds, such as Stock, Commodity, Crude, Metals, and Foreign exchange etc.

I have started using names for the patterns in the charts. Watch them with attention.


Market Lesson 4  :   Sell around  ‘Resistance  Line’  
                                             Support Line                                            
_______________________________ 
                                             Resistance Line

What is a ‘Resistance  Line’?

The price level at which a stock or market can trade, but not exceed, for a certain period of time is called Resistance.

‘Resistance Line’ is an imaginary line or the point at which sellers (“bear”) take control of prices and prevent them from rising higher. The price at which a trade takes place is the price at which a “bull” and “bear” agree to do business. It represents the consensus of their expectations.

Resistance line indicates the price at which most investors feel prices will move lower.
The breaking through support/resistance lines can be triggered by fundamental changes that are above or below investor's expectations. Support and resistance is formed by supply and demand of a particular stock in the market.

‘Support and Resistance’ line:
Like two sides of a coin Support and Resistance are two sides of the same line.
When a resistance line is successfully broken through, that line becomes a support line.
Similarly, when prices drop below a support line, that line often becomes a resistance line.
In both the cases prices have a difficult time breaking through. Crossing of support and resistance lines are usually termed as breakouts.
If the breakouts are associated with huge volume of trade then it generally confirms the direction of the trend.

Note:
1. Buy on the breakout and Buy around Support line conveys the same meaning.
2. Sell on the breakdown and sell around the resistance line conveys the same meaning.
Are you able to comprehend the meaning? If not you will understand it as you advance further.

About the charts: (Dated 1.12.2010)

* To enlarge the chart Double click by keeping the cursor above the chart. 


1. CITY  UNION  BANK




2. GITHANJALI GEMS

FAQ:

5. What is “annual report”?

The write-ups and financial statements of an entity given every year to investors and regulatory bodies.

6. What is balance sheet?

A firm's financial statement that provides a picture of its assets, debts, and net worth at a specific time

7. What is dividend?

A sum of money, determined by a company's directors, paid to shareholders of a corporation out of earnings. It is usually paid once a year, sometimes more than once. If performance of the company is bad then it may skip paying dividend.

8. What is ‘Beta?’

The indicator used to measure a stock's risk relative to the market. The markets beta is always 1.0 (Based on past statistical records, a beta higher than 1.0 indicates that when the market rises, the stock will rise to a greater extent than that of the market; likewise, when the market falls; the stock will fall to a greater extent. A beta lower than 1.0 indicates that the stock will usually change to a lesser extent than that of the market. The higher the beta, the greater the investment risks.)             
                                     

Can we anticipate the line of Resistance in advance? Is there any method or Model to predict it? To get an answer for these queries you have to wait till we reach the Advanced Technical Analysis Module.

Dr.Felisleo
2.12.2010
 


Sunday, November 28, 2010

Asset Building through Equity

Part  II :   Asset  Building  Through  Equity

CHAPTER 6: Why Should I Invest In Equity?

 "Balance is the key to success in all things. Do not neglect your mind, body, or spirit. Invest time and energy in all of them equally - it will be the best investment you ever make, not just for your life but for whatever is to follow."
                                                                                         - Tanya Wheway
Why?

 For all the recent gyrations in the stock market, equity continues to be a better bet than fixed income instruments like government securities or bank deposits. Even the government backed Unit 64 plan defaulted and caused heavy loss to big investors. From this we should understand that risk lies in all sorts of investments.

Let us take the investment in Mutual Funds. We mainly do this because of our unfounded belief that fund managers are financial wizards and will definitely give a good return inspite of any kind of market situations. See the following table of performance of mutual funds during the year 2008-2009.

PERFORMENCE OFMUTUALFUNDS
______________________________________
                                          Rate of Return (%)   
Equity                          6Months        1 year        3 years             
ING Dynamic Asset      2.88           0.48           --
UTI Dividend Yield    -12.66        -20.05       1.59
Birla Sun Life             -14.47        -21.50      -4.88
IDFC Imperial Equity -14.04        -24.28       2.37
Note: Returns calculated for less than one year are absolute Returns and returns calculated for more than one year are compounded annualized.

The above table clearly exposes the financial wizardry of fund managers. Many of us do not want take risk on our money but are willing to donate our money to unknown fund managers for taking that risk.

Nobody in the market can foretell what is going to happen in the future. Market changes minute by minute. Do remember it is the market that makes the wizards and fools depending upon their time of entry. Hence I would like to reiterate once again it is better to take risk on your own instead of believing on somebody else’s unproven capability.

Let me explain how a long term investor who has no knowledge of the market movements might have fared if he has invested in good companies. There are many families in India who used to invest in some shares of good companies ( Century , Ponds etc.) as soon as a girl child is born which has taken care of the marriage of the child. I have given a list of stocks and their prices with respective years. Compare their prices today and the percentage of appreciation.  Many of these stocks have also multiplied many times through bonus issues.

Early and late 80’s
Company                                Price in RS.
McDowell                                     7
MRF                                             8
Tata Tea                                      9
L&t                                             30
Ponds (Now HUL)                    22
Grasim                                      30    
Revathi Eq.                               12
Hero Honda                                9
MAY  2003
JP associates                         40  
Sail                                            12
Century                                     26
Tata Steel                              150
June  2010
Githanjali Gems                    120
Siyaram                                 170
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You can check yourself the advantage of equity investment from the above list.



WHAT IS EQUITY?

Securities representing equity ownership in a corporation, providing voting rights, and entitling the holder to a share of the company's success through dividends and/or capital appreciation.
In the event of liquidation, common shareholders have rights to a company's assets only after bondholders, other debt holders, and preferred shareholders.
                                                                                                           

WHAT IS EQUITY INVESTMENT
Equity investment generally refers to the buying and holding of shares of stock on a stock market by individuals and funds in anticipation of income from dividends and capital gains as the value of the stock rises. It also sometimes refers to the acquisition of equity (ownership), participation in a private (unlisted) company or a startup (a company being created or newly created).
When the investment is in infant companies, it is referred to as venture capital investing and is generally understood to be higher risk than investment in listed going-concern situations.

WHAT  DETERMINES  SHARE PRICE  ?

Ultimately, at any given moment, equity’s price is strictly a result of supply and demand. The supply is the number of shares offered for sale at any one moment.
 The demand is the number of shares investors wish to buy at exactly that same time.
 The price of the stock moves in order to achieve and maintain equilibrium.


WHO ARE ALL THE FELLOW PLAYERS? WHAT CAUSES THE GYRATIONS IN THE MARKET? WE WILL DISCUSS IN THE FORTH COMING CHAPTER.



Dr.Felisleo
28.11.2010


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